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Hard Truth: Texas House Democrats Fled to Kill Conservative Priorities … AND Texas Republicans Let Them!

 In California, true-red conservatives would be happy to have a governor like Greg Abbott. What we have here, what we have now with Gavin Newsom is the absolute pits. He is one of the worst governors, if not the worst governor, in the United States of America.

However, the people in Texas do not like Governor Greg Abbott.

For all the fawning and frolic of the Texas Legislators, with a GOP trifecta at their disposal, Texas Republicans elected to the Austin state legislature have NOT taken the necessary steps to enact the 8 key legislative priorities of the Texas GOP.

In fact, only two passed this past legislative session: constitutional carry and religious liberty protections. The Texas GOP has been fighting to abolish, not just limit, abortion for years. They wanted legislation to enact school choice. They also wanted to ban sex mutilation of minors.

Instead of pressing forward on enacting these priorities, Texas Republicans waste time, enacted long adjournment periods. The Speaker pandered to Democrats so that he could be elected Speaker of the House. Since then, he has let Democrats get away with slow-walking every conservative priority in Austin.

Here’s the full report from Texas Scorecard:

While it’s unknown how this saga will end, the record shows House Republicans enabled the Democrat walkout that has paralyzed the Legislature.

By Brandon Waltens|July 14, 2021

After House Democrats left Austin for Washington, D.C., this week in order to break quorum and halt consideration of conservative priorities, Republicans in the chamber continue to beat their chests, calling for Democrats to return and do the work they are paid to do.

And while that argument is certainly true (after all, House Democrats who have left will continue to be entitled to receive their pay and per diem), there is one key fact that has largely been ignored: House Republicans allowed this to happen.

And though it was only this past Monday that Democrats packed up their bags (and beer) to jet off to the nation’s Capitol, Republicans prepared the path for them before the session began.

It started in November when now-Speaker Dade Phelan courted Democrat lawmakers in his quest to wield the gavel. Having served since 2015, Phelan’s record was no secret. In fact, he was one of only three Texas House Republicans to receive a positive grade from Equality Texas, a pro-LGBT advocacy organization that has heavily opposed legislation to protect children from gender modification procedures.

But despite knowing these facts, the House Republican Caucus voted to give him their seal of approval.

On January 11, the day before the regular 87th Legislative Session was slated to begin, Phelan went on record saying he would appoint Democrats to chair committees, a practice not even done in Washington, D.C. Instead, Phelan called the House’s “bipartisan” model one that “worked pretty darn well,” adding that it was not always about “Republican versus Democrat” or “left versus right.”

Despite this assertion, Phelan was overwhelmingly elected speaker of the House on January 12, with only two freshman voting against him: State Reps. Jeff Cason (R–Bedford) and Bryan Slaton (R–Royse City).

The next day, when the House had the opportunity to pass the rules that governed how they would operate for the session, Slaton offered an amendment to bar Democrats from chairing committees in the Texas House. 

The opposition brought up State Rep. Briscoe Cain (R–Deer Park), who read a prepared statement opposing Slaton’s amendment, and the effort was soundly defeated.

Several weeks later, true to his word, Phelan announced his committee appointments with Democrats chairing several key committees, including Education and Business & Industry. Appointed as his speaker pro tempore was Democrat State Rep. Joe Moody (El Paso), who hangs a banner in his office accusing Republicans of racist intent for passing Senate Bill 4—the ban on sanctuary cities that passed during the 2017 regular session. Moody said he was grateful to be appointed to the “No. 2 spot in the chamber.”

Then, the long adjournments began.

During January, February, and into March, the House would often adjourn for many days at a time. Eventually, some conservative lawmakers—like Slaton and State Rep. Tony Tinderholt (R–Arlington)—began to question leadership about why they were being asked to leave town while conservative priorities were not being addressed. They were told there was plenty of time by Republican lawmakers close to Phelan, such as State Reps. Will Metcalf (Conroe) and Cole Hefner (Mt. Pleasant).

But while there was indeed plenty of time, the Republican-led House continued to slow-walk the rest of the session to the detriment of many conservative priorities. 

In the final weeks of the session, numerous Republican priorities—such as banning child gender modification, protecting monuments, and abolishing abortion—were killed.

And on the penultimate night of the session, when an omnibus election integrity bill was up for final consideration on the floor of the House, Democrats were told by Speaker Phelan that if they left the chamber, he would not lock the doors or send for them.

So, that’s exactly what they did. And the bill died.

Almost immediately, however, it became clear that Gov. Greg Abbott would call a special 30-day session so lawmakers could have a mulligan on some of the legislation, like election integrity, that didn’t make it past the finish line during the regular session. 

At the same time, Democrats went on national media, forecasting their plans to leave the Capitol and break the quorum. Democrat State Rep. Rafael Anchia (Dallas) recently called the tactic “effective,” during an interview, adding that he “would be willing to” leave the state to break quorum.

While Republicans could argue they were caught off guard when Democrats broke quorum in May to kill the election integrity bill, with Democrats laying the groundwork early for their departure again during the special session, one would hope leadership would be prepared to address the issue this time around. 

Instead, when the special session kicked off on July 8, it was business as usual. No one motioned to lock the doors or otherwise keep the Democrats from fleeing.

State Rep. Tony Tinderholt (R–Arlington) filed a resolution that would punish lawmakers who shirked their responsibilities by stripping them of committee chairmanships, committee memberships, and seniority privileges. 

But Speaker Phelan ignored the resolution and then recessed the House for a long weekend, until Tuesday, July 13.

In other words, Democrats were given a window of opportunity. And, unsurprisingly, they took it.

On Monday, July 12, reports began to swirl that Democrats were indeed imminently planning on leaving the state. But in the several hours after those reports were first made public and when the Democrats’ two private planes took off from Austin-Bergstrom Airport, there was silence from Abbott, Phelan, and Republican leadership at large. Bragging on social media, Democrats were allowed to load up on a bus and fly to D.C. in broad daylight as Texans watched it all unfold.

In fact, it was only after they were officially “wheels up” that Abbott and Phelan issued statements on the matter.

But while Abbott has been publicly calling for punitive measures to punish Democrats—such as stripping their committee chairmanships and even suggesting he could declare their seats vacant and hold special elections to replace them—Phelan’s response has been tame in comparison.

After it was made official on Tuesday morning that the House lacked a quorum, Phelan finally entertained a motion for a “call of the House,” locking the doors and directing the sergeant-at-arms to send for absent members “under warrant for arrest if necessary.”

So far, however, that appears to be all Phelan is willing to do. He has so far claimed that he does not have the power to remove members from their committee positions. And he has stated that the only business the House can do while they wait is the daily pledges and prayer. 

Some, however, have disagreed with Phelan’s assertion. Republican Party of Texas Chairman Matt Rinaldi, who himself is a former state lawmaker, took to Twitter to say the speaker explicitly does have the power to remove any committee chair he has appointed and that the House can compel attendance “under such penalties as each House may provide.”

Yet day two of the standoff came to a close with no such motions even attempted. (Phelan has, however, requested that Democrats return their $221 daily per diem.)

Meanwhile, Democrats have held multiple press conferences and media appearances in the past couple of days, railing against Republican efforts to safeguard the integrity of the ballot box. 

And what about State Rep. Joe Moody, Phelan’s “No. 2” guy? He is among those leading the movement. 

There are currently 25 days left in the 30-day special session. And when this one ends, Gov. Abbott can call repeated sessions until the Democrats eventually decide to return home. But while it may not be clear how this saga will conclude, the record shows it began with enablement from Republicans and the leadership they have—so far—been slow to criticize.

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Trump Makes GOP Toxic in California?

The San Francisco Chronicle is always ready to attack, condemn, shut down Republicans.

They have no interest in conservatives or center-right politics having a foothold or a chance of victory in the Golden State.

The liberal media loves to report how Republicans used to dominate the state of California, and now they have been pushed into absolute irrelevence.

Is there any way for the GOP to thrive, let alone survive, in the state of California?

This story follows the fallout for Catharine Baker, who was the only Republican legislator in the Bay Area. She was elected in 2014 following the term limit on the incumbent and a number of other local issues which gave her a chance against a union-backed big money Democrat.

At the first CAGOP Convention which I had attended, I got to listen to the consultants and the campaign managers who made her election a success. She was definitely liberal on a number of issues, including marriage, life, and even Cap and Trade.

She campaigned actively in support of this terrible program, in fact.

This has been the game which many Republicans have been told to play. The only wahy that Republicans can have a chance of winning is to be as liberal as possible. In the mean time, the state has gone from bad to worse, and more people are fleeing.

Was it ultimately President Trump which ruined the GOP brand in the state of California?

The San Francisco Chronicle wants to tell that story, to be sure. But is it a fair summation of what has happened in the state of California?

Or should we rather recognize that forty years of uninterrupted liberalism has ruined this state, and no political party can save it?

‘Your brand is toxic’: Bay Area’s last GOP lawmaker couldn’t overcome Trump

Catharine Baker was the only Republican representing the Bay Area in either the Legislature or Congress, until she lost her re-election bid to the Assembly in November. Now there is none.

The two-term incumbent practically ran as a Democrat, and still lost to a political neophyte. That raised the question: If Baker can’t win in the Bay Area, what Republican can?

She ran as a Democrat. Doesn’t that say it all? Why is it that moderate Republicans end up embracing liberal policies across the board, only to lose in the end? That partisan two-step simply never pays off.

The answer Baker found after spending weeks combing through post-election data and campaign trail anecdotes should be a red flag for Republicans in the Bay Area and beyond in California, heading into President Trump’s 2020 re-election campaign.

“Ninety percent of the feedback we received was, ‘I can’t vote for you because you’re Republican,’” Baker said. “That message to Republicans is, ‘Your brand is toxic in this state.’ That’s why the party has a very faint pulse right now.”

What is it about Republicans that has turned off so many voters? It’s not just the Republican policies, I submit. It’s the corrupt press which has gone to great lengths to shame and diminish conservatives of every stripe.

Let’s talk about the indoctrination, not education, which people young and old are enduring in the government schools throughout the state.

Being a Republican wasn’t a problem for Baker before Trump’s presidency. The Dublin resident won two elections in a district that stretches through the suburbs of central Contra Costa and eastern Alameda counties, where Democrats outnumber Republicans, by advocating policies that appeal across party lines.

Baker is pro-choice. She supports same-sex marriage rights and a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. She voted for the state’s leading-edge climate change law. She supported gun control measures in the Legislature.

I would haev to say, however, what is the point of running as a Republican if you are going to vote left on all the major issues? What votes did she ultimately cast which were in the best interests of the state and made her a worthwhile Republican? When looking at all the issues down the line, it doesn’t make a lot of sense.

Baker reached out to Democrats and independents — she held 16 town hall meetings with Democratic state Sen. Steve Glazer of Orinda, whose district overlapped hers. She said internal polling showed that 60 percent of voters surveyed in her 16th District approved of her job performance.

Job approval does not translate into election victories. Time and again partisanship will win out, and there is no escaping that fact.

Yet Baker lost in November by two percentage points to Rebecca Bauer-Kahan, a Democratic attorney from Orinda who had never run for public office before.

Baker drowned in a wave election with a concrete “R” chained to her ankle.

More commentary than reporting, again. This frantic editorializing has turned off so many people to the mainstream media.

She wasn’t alone. The GOP lost half the 14 House seats it controlled in California. As usual, no Republicans were elected to statewide office — the last time a GOP candidate won one of those races was in 2006. There are so few Republicans in the Legislature that Democrats tried to invent a word (“giga-majority”) to describe what now amounts to more than a two-thirds supermajority.

Give me a break. There are other state legislatures which have a massive Democratic presence. They should check out the numbers in Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Oregon Democrats now have a supermajority in Salem. too.

Last month, the GOP lost another one. San Diego Assemblyman Brian Maienschein left the Republican Party to join the Democrats because he couldn’t stomach Trump any longer.

“I can either keep fighting to change the Republican Party, or I can fight for my constituents,” Maienschein said. “There wasn’t a way that I could continue and feel good about myself and the choices I was making.”

Give me a break! The only reason Maienschein left the Republican Party is that he knew that he had no chance of getting elected against in 2020. He barely held onto his seat last year, and realized that his best bet to staying in power was to join the Democrats. He had often voted with them anyway, so the change is not that dramatic.

Baker was as anti-Trump as any Republican in the state. She said she wrote in former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s name on her 2016 presidential ballot and supported motions to censure Trump while in the Assembly.

Those kinds of actions probably hurt her even more. Most Republicans were angry with her to begin with because of the votes which she had cast in the past: gun control measures, assisted suicide, repeal of the religious exemptions for vaccinations. I cannot tell you how many people were furious with Baker because of those terrible votes!

She said she’s lost Republican friends and donors by publicly opposing Trump. Some told Baker that they supported her despite her liberal positions on abortion, same-sex marriage and the environment, and couldn’t understand why she wouldn’t stand by the president despite their differences.

Like I said! That’s what utimately did it! Why continue to represent any district, any region as a Republican if you are not going to support the President and everything which the party stands for?

“I just felt he was too far out of the bounds,” Baker said in an interview for The Chronicle’s “It’s All Political” podcast. She was still happy to accept Republican help while disapproving of the party’s standard-bearer: “I suppose there’s a hypocrisy there, but one that I’m OK with.”

OUCH!

She admitted to being a hypocrite. That’s going to turn off voters even more!

“Like every self-respecting Republican” who has opposed Trump, Baker said, she is constantly asked why she doesn’t leave the party.

“For me, it is not the right path,” Baker said. “I feel it is so important to not give up on the principles that made me a Republican.”

Catharine, what are those principles? What exactly did you vote for or against which qualified you as a Republican?

Baker, 47, grew up during Ronald Reagan’s presidency. She says he stood for things that appealed to her: individual freedom, small government, the power of the free market.

Her votes to give illegal aliens health insurance on the Obamacare exchanges? Her vote for assisted suicide? To force kids to take on vaccinations in public schools? How do these votes measure up as conservative? She even voted for the MCO tax!

She paraphrased Ohio Gov. John Kasich, a prominent GOP Trump critic, in explaining her decision to stay in the party. “If someone comes in and robs your house,” Baker said, “you don’t help them pack or just sit there and watch. You fight.”

What are these NeverTrump Republicans fighting for? The right to lose gracefully? The right to embrace left-wing policy stances? How is any of this a victory?

The challenge for Baker and others who share her frustrations is what to do next. How to get her party to win again. How to change.

The problem is not the party. The probglem is the culture which has overwhelmed the state of California. The problem cannot get better with different “messaging” or more liberal party politics from both sides of the aisle.

Sadly, it appears that California’s problems have become so great, that party politics cannot fix them.

For starters, she is concerned about who will be the next California Republican Party chair. In particular, she’s concerned about former Orange County Assemblyman Travis Allen.

This is a ringing endorsement for him, Catharine. Perhaps you should have something mean about Steve Frank, too, since he has real plans to Make the California Republican Party great again.

The party chair, who will be elected at the state Republican convention this month, is not only the public face of California Republicans, but must raise money to help elect GOP candidates across the state.

Allen has the most name recognition among the three top candidates for chair after his failed run for governor last year. He finished a distant fourth in the June primary, with 10 percent of the vote. But he has a robust social media presence and has tapped into a vein of pro-Trump supporters in the state — even though Trump endorsed another Republican in the governor’s race, San Diego County businessman John Cox.

Trump endorsed Cox because Kevin McCarthy and Company told him too. They believed that John Cox’ presence at the top of the ticket would drive up the voter turnout to help other candidates in other races. That didn’t happen.

Allen has said he wants to rebuild the Republican Party by stressing “Republican values” instead of the “backward thinking” of trying to act more like Democrats. It’s hard to get to the right of him on most issues.

During his campaign for governor, Allen said “the verdict is still out on climate change” as “it will take quite some time for the science to be settled on this.” He promised that he would “cut taxes, get tough on crime, fix our roads and expand our freeways with no new taxes, fix our broken education system, and complete the California state water project.” He offered few policy details beyond his promises to “fix” and “get tough,” even on his campaign website.

What’s the alternative, though? Letting everything fall apart and being soft on everything?

He focuses much of his ire on “Bay Area elites” like Gov. Gavin Newsom and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi for ruining the state with liberal ideas.

Baker said the GOP needs to articulate a more positive vision of California’s future. But most troubling of all for Baker is Allen’s argument that Republicans must “support our Republican president.”

Supporting Trump would be “a path to death for the Republican Party” in California, Baker said.

Yet Trump’s campaign promises are the only ones that will keep the country in one place. We have to balance our budgets, secure our borders, protect life and family. The conservative worldview is the only view which will conserve the world. The truth is that we must advocate for these values as much as possible. We need to make the case and remove the power differentials which have made Big Government and Big Handouts the big winners in one election after another.

Allen defended his support of Trump, telling The Chronicle in an email that “Republicans in California didn’t lose because our country has the best economy in decades or record low unemployment. We didn’t lose because we’ve fixed international trade deals or strengthened our military. Republicans in California lost because the California Democrats out planned, out spent, and out executed the establishment Republican Party.”

These assessments are accurate across the board. The problem is that Democrats are better organized and they have continued gaming the election system in their favor. The latest example is the automatic voter-motor law, ballot-harvesting, and rank voter fraud.

Baker thinks it was more than a case of the GOP being outhustled. In California, at least, the party has to embrace comprehensive immigration reform instead of lining up only behind Trump’s plan for a wall on the Mexican border, she said. Most Republicans say they don’t want to address the question of the nation’s 11 million undocumented residents until its borders are secure. But Baker says Republicans must do both and must give undocumented immigrants a way to become citizens.

Here’s the problem, Catharine. Ronald Reagan tried that approach, and what ended up happening was that all the illegals received amnesty, and there was no border security afterwards. This is all wrong. We must secure the border. Period. Any talk about amnesty or reform is meaningless apart from following through on the border wall and the enforcement of all immigration laws.

“If our party can’t come to terms with that — and I mean immediately — we are done in California,” she said.

The problem is much bigger than the party politics, sadlly.

The other area where Republicans are seriously out of touch with the state is the environment, Baker said. She was one of seven Assembly Republicans in 2017 to support then-Gov. Jerry Brown’s extension of the state’s cap-and-trade program to combat climate change. It’s a market-based approach to curbing greenhouse gas emissions, under which companies must buy permits for every metric ton of gas they emit. Baker said Republicans should recognize that it’s better than heavy-handed government regulation.

Cap and Trade is a total scam, a total fraud, and it’s wrong that she went along with this hoax. The Republicans all should have refused to budge and help pass that travesty. They had the votes to hold it back. They could have joined with a handful of Democrats in really tight re-election bids and prevented the program from passing.

But instead, those seven Republicans in the state assembly caved and extended the program. Is it any surprise that so many people refuse to vote for Republicans?

But Republicans excoriated Baker and the other GOP lawmakers who backed Brown’s measure, calling them traitors. Chad Mayes, who led the party in the Assembly, was forced to resign his leadership post over it.

The force of removing Chad Mayes from power did not amount to much, sadly. Brian Dahle has not been much better. So much selling out, so much going along with the rest of the status quo, and with so little to show for it.

“I thought it was one of the most conservative votes I cast in my four years in the Legislature,” Baker said. “We offered a solution that’s consistent with our principles, and the pitchforks came out. You would have thought that Republicans were anti-environment.”

What a load of crap. There is nothing conservative about approving and advancing Cap and Trade. Nothing at all.

It’s hard to see a political future for someone like Baker. Her state party is largely to the right of her and seems to think its biggest problem is that it’s not conservative enough. There were once enough Democrats open to the idea of electing a moderate Republican, but Baker’s experience shows that may no longer be true.

Baker, however, isn’t discouraged. She’s working as a lawyer now, still in her old district, and pondering her next political step.

“My time in public service,” she said, “is not over.”

Final Reflection

It’s not fair to blame Trump for everything, for anything, or even for something.

The fact is that this country needs to secure its borders, and the wall is the best way to do that. California has turned into the officious mess it finds itself in precisely because of the rampant illegal immigration and open border policies.

Republicans did not fight hard enough to secure the border, to stop illegal immigration, to put the needs of Americans, of California citizens first.

Now the voter electorate and the corruption of the voting system may be so great, that there is no partisan solution left. California Republican Party Chairmen are offering more than voter registration programs at this point. They are actively discussing filing lawsuits and enjoining the terrible laws which have adulterated the voter franchise.

Ballot harvesting flipped four seats in Orange County, the Northern LA County seat, plus the two other GOP-held seats in the Central Valley. The fact is that Democrats are out-hustling, cheating at the ballot box.

No amount of moving to the political center, no amount of going Democrat is going to fix these problems. We need to enhance our outreach, sure, but the corruption, the daed voters, the fraud, the illegal alien voters and registrants, all of that needs to be taken care of, too.

If Republicans cannot win in California, at this point we cannot blame the partisan divide only. The cultural breakdown is a big part of it, too. The progressive temperament which has overtaken this state may require a cultural restoration to emerge before anything else.

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Report on the Costs of the Shutdown

Keith Hardine provided the following analysis of the whole government shutdown.

The list of employees furloughed, who will now get paid for doing nothing.

Take a look at the list, and tell me how many of the jobs listed should not be listed. Do we need DEA Agents? Instead of abolishing ICE, I say that we abolish the DEA.

————————-

The Congress shall have power…to…provide for the common Defense and general Welfare of the United States…”

Article I, Section 8, US Constitution

Prepared By Vice Chairman Leahy’s Senate Appropriations Committee Staff

More Than 420,000 Will Be Working Without Pay Including:

More than 41,000 Federal Law Enforcement and Correctional Officers, Including:

2,614 ATF agents;

16,742 Bureau of Prisons correctional officers;

13,709 FBI agents;

3,600 deputy U.S. Marshals; and

4,399 DEA agents.

Up To 88 Percent Of Department of Homeland Security Employees, Including:

53,000 TSA Employees;

54,000 Customs and Border Protection agents and customs offers;

42,000 Coast Guard employees

As many as 5,000 Forest Service Firefighters

3,600 Weather Service Forecasters

More Than 380,000 Will Be Furloughed, Including:

86 Percent of Department of Commerce(Approximately 41,000 Staff),

96 Percent of NASA(Approximately 16,700 Staff)

More than 80 Percent of the National Park Service(Approximately16,000 Staff)

At least 80 Percent of the Forest Service(Approximately 28,800 Staff)

More than 30 Percent of Dept. of Transportation(Approximately 18,300 Staff)

95 Percent of HUD(Approximately 7,100 Staff)

Approximately 52,000 IRS Staff

READ MORE—

https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/news/minority/projected-impacts-of-a-trump-shutdown

“Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.” Thomas Jefferson

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Election 2018: The Month After

Election 2018 has come and gone. I had predicted that the Republicans would keep Congress. We lost the House, although Fox News’ perverse decision to call the House election so quickly rankled many, including me. How could they have possibly determined that West Coast targeted House seats would fall into the Democratic camp, when the polls had not even closed?

At least we kept the US Senate. I had hoped for a much wider margin of victory, but that didn’t happen either. Montanans voted for Tester—again! What is it with these Big Sky State voters? At least Paul Gianforte won re-election, although the margin was a little too close.

The Republican Party did manage to defy history. Remember that in 2010, a similar year to compare with 2018, Republicans gained six seats, adding the stunning special election upset in Massachusetts with Scott Brown of Wrentham.

The Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives remains a stunner. I had really expected that we would stave off hard losses, aside from a handful of states which have gotten bluer as conservative voters flee to red-state climes. California is the epicenter for this internal mass migration, sure, but even then I thought that the extra attention from the national party would make up the difference.

And yet so many House seats went blue this time, and in Orange County, California, the reddest county in California and even the country. Congressman Dana Rohrabacher, a long-standing conservative stalwart (who also represented me in Congress in the late 1980s) was swept out by a thin margin, along with House GOP Conference Chair Mimi Walters, Steve Knight, and Jeff Denham (in the Central Valley). If the incoming provisional ballots foretell anything, it looks like David Valadao is toast, too. Lord have mercy, Republicans were already an endangered species. Now we are on the “Where’s Waldo?” List.

Oh brother, what happened?

First, before going into the bad news, and there’s plenty, let’s consider that the final tally stands at 234 Democrats to 201 Republicans. Remember back to 2010, and Democrats lost all of their House seat gains from 2006 and 2008 in one fell sweep. The Democratic margin of victory was not as strong, even though they spent multi-millions in targeted races. $30 million flooded Orange County airwaves. The media market covers Southern California, from Ventura to Orange County, all the way to the Inland Empire.

Let’s not neglect that even where US Senate candidates lost, their margins were closer than expected. In Michigan, Debbie Stabenow had to debate her opponent, and she still won by 52%. Ohio’s Sherrod Brown barely held on, too. Republicans are making gains in these swing states. And let’s not forget Florida. US Senator Scott along with Governor Ron DeSantis signal more Trump-like victories down the road. All told, Republicans held onto key governorships: Florida, Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa, all in preparation for 2020, including GOP trifectas, too! Even if the federal delegations took a hit, the state delegations remain strong. In Wisconsin, Governor Walker lost, but the legislature remains in Republican hands.

Big money flipped seats, but a number of close-margin Congressional victories in red states (South Carolina, Iowa,  Kansas, Oklahoma, Utah) spell trouble for Democrats in 2020. Nancy Pelosi is unpopular, and the bare minimum of Democrats have voiced opposition to stave off her coronation next year.

Now for the reality check: 2018 was a failure for the Republicans at the popular level, and they need to assess, regroup, and regain.

  1. The Republican National Committee threw a lot of investment into Orange County, CA. Why weren’t they paying closer attention sooner? The House reps had won by comfortable margins in 2014 and 2016. Congressman Darrell Issa didn’t even campaign in 2014. However, in the 2016 June primary the former House Committee Oversight Chairman held a thin 51% margin. Not good. The alarm bells should have been going off not just for that election cycle, but for two years afterwards. If Orange County was trending blue—and so quickly—where were the forces to stave it off?
  2. Speaking of forces: where is the voter registration? In California, it’s next to non-existent, and it shows, with Decline-To-State voters surpassing GOP registration by 1 million voters. What about in other states? Do we have national Republican leaders who have given up on this very simple yet necessary task?
  1. Voter Fraud! There is no way that tutu-wearing terrorist sympathizer Kyrsten Sinema would have carried off such a close upset in Maricopa County, Arizona while the rest of the state voted for other statewide Republican candidates by wide margins. Nevada, Florida, and California need thorough voter fraud investigations—and voter ID is not enough to combat this corruption.
  1. Anti-Trumpism in blue states requires a strong counter-argument, not a vapid retreat. The path to regaining the House of Representatives in 2020 includes suburban areas, especially in blue states. New Jersey’s delegation has gone from five Republicans to just one. This is inexcusable. Illinois voters threw out one Republican, but at least Trump worked hard enough to help Southern Illinois incumbents like Mike Bost. Does Trump want to win forty states or not?
  1. Red State House losses: Mia Love spent more time sparring with President Trump than paying attention to her own district. Kevin Yoder did the bidding of Big Business rather than the voters. Mark Sanford’s loss was Never-Trumpism at its worst. His replacement needed to do more than simply say “Trump endorsed me”, but the tragic car accident she endured marred her campaign. Mike Coffman was getting more liberal by the minute, and that didn’t help him.
  1. The suburbs! President Trump’s agenda is helping working Americans. Great. There are plenty of upwardly mobile suburban voters that need to know that the President has their back, too.

The losses could have been worse, but it’s not good to lose. Republicans need to do more than coast on Trump’s coattails or run from him if they want substantial victories in 2020.

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Roll Call: The Five States to Watch for Election 2018 (Reflection)

Roll Call is another left-leaning political news rag, based in Washington DC.

The publication graces a number of desks and waiting rooms throughout Washington DC, especially in the House Offices.

For Election 2018, these articles are worth looking over to get a picture of how the press is evaluating the targeted House seats going forward.

5 States That Will Decide the House Majority

Watch these states to tell if Democrats are having a good election night

 

With a growing number of vulnerable House districts, there might be too much to watch for on election night. But by focusing on just a handful of states, you can get a pretty good idea of whether Democrats are having a good enough night to gain the 23 seats necessary to win back the majority.

 

Minnesota

Competitive races: 5

Target Democratic gain for a majority: 1

 The Land of 10,000 Lakes is home to five competitive House races, which is remarkable considering there are only eight congressional districts total in Minnesota.

 

Netting one seat might not sound like a steep climb for Democrats (who are technically part of the state’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party), but it would be a significant feat considering they are defending three districts that President Donald Trump carried in 2016.

 

DFL Rep. Collin C. Peterson is likely to win re-election in the 7th District (rated Likely Democratic), but holding the open 1st and 8th districts (left behind by gubernatorial nominee Rep. Tim Walz and retiring Rep. Rick Nolan, respectively) will be more difficult. Both are rated Toss-ups at this stage, but Democrats might be fortunate to lose just one.

If they lose bot, this is YUGE news for us. Republicans are positioned in many ways to do very well in Minnesota. President Trump’s MAGA Agenda has been essential to Minnesotans, troubled not just by higher crime and bad trade deals, but the refugee crisis of open borders and illegal immigration.

 

On their offensive map, Democrats are probably struggling to reach a majority if they can’t defeat Republican Rep. Jason Lewis in the 2nd District (Toss-up). But if they can knock off Lewis and GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen in the 3rd District (Tilts Republican), they’ll probably be able to gain a seat out of the state.

 

Minnesota bottom line: Democrats probably need to gain at least a seat, while breaking even would be a disappointment.’

Very happy to hear about this. I believe that this will be the year that Minnesota goes from blue state to red state, and for good. The Democratic Party no longer cares about farmers and laborers. The Republican Party does, and Trump has brought that working class bonhomie back!

 

California

Competitive races: 9

 

Target Democratic gain for a majority: 5

 

Unlike Minnesota, it’s virtually all upside for Democrats in the Golden State. There are at least nine legitimately vulnerable GOP districts, while the Republican takeover opportunities have either faded or have yet to develop.

 

I have to call “BullSh–t” on this one. No matter how pumped up the Democratic Party may feel about the races in this state, the incumbents whom they are targeting are not as week as pundits may think.

Dana Rohrabacher is facing a steep set of challenges, sure. However, local and national political sites have often listed Rohrabacher’s seat as a toss-up, but he has continued to win his seat handily without serious problem or incident.

The most likely to flip right now is the 49th District (Tilts Democratic), which opened after GOP Rep. Darrell Issa decided against seeking re-election. Democrats are also optimistic about winning Rep. Ed Royce’s open seat in the 39th District (Toss-up), although Republicans, who are confident about their nominee, have a very different view of the race. Democrats also believe they’re likely to defeat GOP Dana Rohrabacher in the 48th (Toss-up). Losing any of those seats — especially the open seats in districts that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 — would be a punch in the gut for Democrats.

Gil Cisneros, who is running for CD-39 to replace Ed Royce, is a under an ethical and criminal cloud for sexual misconduct. He is part of the #MeToo madness which has overwhelmed the Democratic Party. Young Kim served as Congressman Ed Royce’s district director for 20 years before she ran for state assembly in 2014 and won. She lost her re-election bid, then sought a seat on the Orange County Board of Supervisors. She switched to Royce’s seat

 

But the party also has good takeover opportunities against Reps. Jeff Denham (10th District), Steve Knight (25th District), and Mimi Walters (45th District). The three races are currently rated Tilts Republican, but winning at least one of them is reasonable for Democrats under reasonably good electoral conditions.

Denham is going to be fine. The Democrats have been pushing this line for the last four years. They are not going to dislodge Denham. He is too well-known in the district. Central Valley politicians hold virtually the same positions, whether Democrat or Republican. They form the best relationships with all interested parties in the region, and no one can get rid of them.

 

Reps. Tom McClintock (4th District), David Valadao (21st District), and Duncan Hunter (50th District) are all vulnerable, albeit for different reasons. Their races are rated Likely Republican. Valadao has been a particularly elusive target for Democrats, and defeating him would be as symbolic of the cycle as it would be important for the majority.

Tom McClintock should not be on this list. Period. This is a total joke.

As for David Valadao, see Jeff Denham, and then add another element: the Democrat running against him is a total left-wing progressive whose San Francisco values simply cannot connect with the Central Valley constituency which Valadao has represented since his days in the state legislature.

Valadao is going to be fine.

Steve Knight? Same thing. His challenger, Katie Hill, is essentially another Los Angeles liberal completely out of place in the Antelope Valley/Simi Valley region. They are way too left-wing for districts where the incumbents are well-know by name and legislative legacy.

 

California bottom line: Democrats need to gain five seats here, but could theoretically get close to half of the overall gains they need for a majority if they sweep the California races.

Verdict. Only one seat may be lost: CD-49, although very likely that election will not be decided until two weeks after the election. Democrats are not going to net five seats. Not going to happen.

 

New York

Competitive races: 5

 

Target Democratic gain for a majority: 2

 

When it comes to New York, Democrats need a takeover state of mind, but none of the vulnerable Republican seats are easy or guaranteed. If Democrats fail to oust Reps. Claudia Tenney (22nd District) and John J. Faso (19th District), it’s going to be a long night for the party. Both seats are currently Toss-ups, but both incumbents are polling in the low- to mid-40s in most surveys.

Incumbency is almost as long-lasting as reigning monarchy, especially in New York. Faso is a liberal-leaning Republican, anyway

 

GOP Rep. John Katko consistently turns potentially competitive races into laughers, but Democrats haven’t given up hope in the 24th District this year. Even though former Rep. Michael G. Grimm didn’t win the Republican primary in the 11th District, Democrats still have a credible challenger to Rep. Dan Donovan. And Rep. Chris Collins’ indictment for insider trading opens the door for Democrats in the open 27th District. All are rated as Likely Republican, and wins here would be indicators of a good night for Democrats.

The 27th will stay in Republican hands. A new candidate will ensure a higher turnout, though.

 

New York bottom line: Democrats have a handful of opportunities and probably need to gain at least two for a majority. If they win more, and races such as the 1st District against Rep. Lee Zeldin truly come into play, Democrats are having a great night.

Zeldin has been very attentive to the concerns of his constituents, and his legislative record has demonstrated enough independence to ensure that he is sold on Trump’s issues, even if he is not solidly on the Trump train.

 

Pennsylvania

Competitive races: 9

 

Target Democratic gain for a majority: 4

 

Democrats had a handful of targets in the Keystone State before the new congressional map was put in place. Now, with a combination of new district lines and open seats, Democrats have at least seven takeover opportunities.

Pennsylvania is the state which has given me the greatest pause. The districts were strictly gerrymandered, and even then one of the seats which had been solidly Republican for decades suddenly fell into Democratic hands. Is it possible that Connor Lamb could get ousted when the requisite number of Republican voters finally show up to the polls?

 

The 5th and 6th districts (Likely Democratic), left open by GOP Reps. Patrick Meehan and Ryan A. Costello, are ripe for the picking for Democrats. Former GOP Rep. Charlie Dent left behind a seat (now the new 7th District), which is vulnerable (Tilts Democratic), probably more so now that the GOP candidate had to spend time fending off a misconduct allegation. And new Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb has an excellent chance of knocking off GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus in the 17th District (Leans Democratic).

 

Democrats are also excited about their chances in the 1st District (Tilts Republican) against GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick and have longer-shot chances against Scott Perry (10th District) and Mike Kelly (16th District), with both races rated Likely Republican.

 

Democrats are likely to lose the 14th District, which constitutes a majority of the territory where Lamb won his special election. But Lamb lives — and is running — in the newly drawn 17th. So Democrats will have to subtract at least one from any gains elsewhere. Republicans also have a credible challenger against Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright in the 8th District (Leans Democratic), but it’s still too early to know if the congressman is in real trouble.

 

Pennsylvania bottom line: Democrats have a plethora of opportunities but will take at least one hit to their gains. They probably need to net at least four seats here.

They might get those four seats in Pennsylvania. One can only hope that Trump’s victory in Erie County, which has never happened for a Republican, can intimate that Republican turnout will improve across the state on Election Night.

 

Illinois

Competitive races: 3

Target Democratic gain for a majority: 2

Illinois is on the list because Republicans’ last greatest hope, Bruce Rauner, turned into the biggest failure, the most massive disappointment. He betrayed the Republicans and the conservative base he had pledged to work with on one issue after another.

Illinois has become a lost cause, and there is little else to blame besides Rauner.

 

There aren’t a ton of competitive races in Illinois, but they could be symptomatic of races around the country.

 

GOP Rep. Peter Roskam hasn’t had a competitive race in years, but he’s vulnerable in his 6th District (Toss-up), in part because of Trump’s unpopularity in the Chicago suburbs. Downstate, Trump carried the 12th District (Tilts Republican) handily by 15 points, but GOP Rep. Mike Bost is vulnerable, in part because Democrats recruited a strong challenger.

Bost is going to be fine. Roskam could be gone.

 

GOP Rep. Rodney Davis is also vulnerable in the 13th District (Leans Republican) and could suffer from increased college student turnout against the president. But the congressman isn’t in as bad of a shape right now as Roskam and Bost. If Rep. Randy Hultgren ends up in a neck-and-neck race in the 14th District, Democrats are having a solid night. His race is rated Solid Republican for now. Trump carried the 14th District — drawn to elect a Republican after the last census — by nearly 4 points, but the congressman hasn’t had a real race in years.

Congressman will do better than Presidents sometimes. The incumbency of being Congressman helps.

 

Illinois bottom line: Democrats need to gain two seats here for numerical and symbolic reasons. The party needs the numbers to get back to the majority, but winning in the suburbs is key (6th District), and seeing their top recruits succeed (12th District) would be good for morale as well.

Looking over the three seats analyzed by Roll Call, I think that Democrats are wasting their time on these incumbents. They won’t win big in this state.

The article suggests that California has a lot of flip opportunities. I sincerely doubt that. The biggest chances of victory for Democrats will run through Pennsylvania.

Democrats have to win a net 23 house seats. They lost the special election for the Ohio race. They will win at least two seats in Minnesota, and perhaps two in Pennsylvania. That brings the number of seats which Democrats must clip to 27. Despite all the money they are spending in “swing” districts in California, the fact that Hillary Clinton supposedly “won” certain districts in California does not mean that a Democratic contender will knock out a Republican incumbent. The two races operate on different dynamics. Many Democrats were motivated to turn out for Hillary Clinton in California.

Republicans up and down the state, however, were getting different messages from party leaders at the state and national levels. Trump fired up the base, but much of the political establishment did everything possible to minimize Trump and their connection to him. Some candidates openly defied their identification with Trump, refusing to endorse or even vote for him–and they lost. I also believe that their lack of enthusiasm for the national contender hurt the turnout for lower ballot races.